performance & strategy

When quickly skimming the Internet, one notices that there are countless trading signal providers. In fact, for the latter, the aim is often to overwhelm subscribers with advertising and / or sell seminars, books and lectures, as opposed to offering accurate trading signals. We are an owner-operated and therefore independent company. Founder and mastermind – Ara Yalmanian – has been regularly trading based on ONE SIGNAL’s principles for over 15 years.

Our advantages speak for themselves: In the past decade, portfolios entirely based on ONE SIGNAL have returned an average of over 25% annually, in comparison to the S&P 500, which has returned roughly 7% over the same period.

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE

Since its inception, ONE SIGNAL has outperformed the benchmark index almost every year. Between 2005 and 2020, the S&P 500 returned on average p.a. 7%, compared to One Signal Xpert with 26.5% on average p.a. and One Signal Xpert returning 40.5% on average p.a.​

STOCK MARKETS & EMOTION​

To be a successful investor, some skills such as the ability to evaluate company fundamentals and contextualise geo-political events are required. However, neither of these technical skills is as important as the trader’s mindset.

CONTRARIAN INVESTING AND SENTIMENT INDICATORS

Contrarian Investing is a widely discussed and often misunderstood approach that, when applied correctly, can bring a lot of success to investors and speculators. To put an end to a myth: “contrarian” does not always mean to be against a trend, or to be permanently against the majority. When a bull market lasts a long time, it’s like standing in the way of a buffalo stampede. Sometimes there are courageous ones who oppose the general opinion.

HISTORICAL BUBBLES

Throughout hundreds of years of market history, we have observed (financial/asset) bubbles, often with ruinous effects. Asset bubbles have a psychological component. The development is attributed to three psychological factors, which are greed, envy and speculation, whereas three other factors influence the burst of these bubbles: fear, lack of confidence and disappointment.

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Stock Markets and Emotions

In the quest to get rich quickly, capital markets often become very attractive for many individuals. Many newcomers have a success story in mind, in which they have assigned the hero role to themselves. Unfortunately, the reality is different: many individuals leave the stock market with a lot of disappointment after realising big losses. Nevertheless, capital markets remain full of excitement and full of adventure, but above all, they are the best teacher one can find if one is persistent and adaptive enough.
Beginners enter the market greedy for money, success, and recognition. Most people leave the markets disillusioned and with the wrong conclusions, without getting anything in return for their apprenticeship money (losses). The range of the market psychology cycle between euphoria and the emotional apocalypse is the same for everyone. Those who work on themselves in the process can successfully pursue the profession of trader or full-time investor. The vast majority of market participants who are part-time will never be able to fully exploit the market and risk-reward opportunities in their favor. ONE SIGNAL was designed for these people. 

CONTRARIAN INVESTING AND SENTIMENT INDICATORS

This can also be summed up correctly in the words of Warren Buffet: “Buy fear, sell greed.” The majority of value investors believe they are contrarian investors. They seek the intrinsic value in each stock. They buy when the market price is near the intrinsic value (best below it) and sell when the market price exceeds the intrinsic value. Some of them are looking for companies with favorable fundamental data, such as low P/E (price-to-earnings ratio), favorable P/B (price-to-book ratio), or companies with high dividend yields. The purpose is clear: to buy companies that have been neglected by the majority and wait until investors become aware of these stocks. Herd behavior arises when an increasing number of investors use this approach.

So what makes a real contrarian?

Being contrarian is more of a way of life than a strategy. It is more about independent thought than deviating from the majority. When herd behavior develops in the market, a contrarian would immediately ask the existential questions about the rationality of the trend. Contrarians are not necessarily outsiders, but they are brave enough to go it alone. However, they are also intelligent, attentive and flexible enough to know when the path taken is the wrong one. Sentiment indicators, unlike technical or fundamental indicators, reconcile the behavior of market participants (investors and speculators) with their actions in the market. Technical indicators only work once a balanced price prevails that considers demand and supply. They are inherently backward-looking and describe the behaviour of the masses in the past. The only meaningful use of technical indicators is the analysis and interpretation of past trends and using these indicators to project future ones. Fundamental analysis is a very different approach that analyzes companies using dozens of KPIs. Often the assumptions are not those prevailing in the market. Most notably, however, the share price of a given company can rise even if it is overvalued. Conversely, an undervalued stock may continue to fall if the market prefers a different industry or uses a divergent investment style. Fundament investors must be very patient, especially because the market tends to exaggerate and be irrational.

What are sentiment indicators?

Sentiment indicators quantify the future development of the market based on the behavior of market participants. In doing so, sentiment indicators provide a reliable picture of the psychology of the market.

What sentiment indicators are there?

There are a number of indicators that describe market psychology. Here are three: 1) Sentiment surveys (AAII/NAAIM) are usually held weekly, in which members of given organizations are asked about their current investments and expectations. 2) Volatility Index: This is a measure of fear and is usually calculated using the implicit volatility of the options on a respective index. Each major stock index has its own volatility index. The most famous of this family is the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). 3) Put/Call Ratio shows the relationship between purchased puts and purchased calls, giving insights into the optimism or pessimism in the market.
Everyone has an opinion on market developments, but not all opinions can be translated into action. Thus, such opinions are not interesting to us. We are only interested in opinions that can be used to position one’s own capital in the market and not just as a declaration of intent. Since sentiment indicators only incorporate opinions of active investors and speculators, we rely exclusively on these indicators.

HISTORICAL BUBBLES

This table represents the historical highs of various speculation instruments worldwide of a time period of 400 years. It demonstrates very clearly that bear markets always followed historical highs. These downward trends were caused by market participants’ fear of loss, which led them to sell their instruments and therefore cause the bear markets.