Since its inception, ONE-SIGNAL has outperformed the S&P500 almost every year. Between 2005 and 2023, the S&P 500 returned on average p.a. 7%, compared to ONE-SIGNAL’s 26.15% return from our XPRESS package and 38.97% from our XPERT package. See our year-on-year trading results below.
ONE-SIGNAL XPERT delivers a trading signal a few hours before the New York Stock Exchange opening bell. Positions are entered at the NYSE opening bell and closed at the end of the trading day. This enables a systematic approach and allows individuals to establish a trading routine. Traders must only open their trades, go onto their daily business, and close the trade at the end of the day.
| 2005-2024 |  | S&P500 |
| Average performance p.a | 46.55% | 6.700% |
| Variance | 0.009% | 0.015% |
| Alpha (α) | 0.288 | 1 |
| Beta (β) | 23.009% | 13.119% |
| Volatility | 0.1465 | 0.1941 |
| Risk-free rate | 1% | 1% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.051 | 0.273 |
| Treynor Index | 1.306 | 0.404 |
“The capital markets are subject to a continuously dynamic change. Our task is to observe and analyze the forces causing these changes in the markets. After both a wait-and-see approach and, on the other hand, supportive actions in the stock markets, volatility fell to relative lows. We anticipate that those who have been on the sidelines, or funds that were engaged in other markets, will flow back into the market. This would lead to an increase in volatility in the market and greatly benefit our systems. We anticipate that 2024 will prove to be an exceptionally favorable year.”
Ara Yalmanian
CEO and System Developer of ONE-SIGNAL
ONE-SIGNAL was developed after numerous years of research on stock market bubbles and the behaviour of investors as individuals and in masses. The development of these bubbles is attributed to three psychological factors; greed, envy, and speculation. Conversely, fear, lack of confidence, and disappointment will cause these bubbles to burst.
Based on this, Ara Yalmanian developed ONE-SIGNAL, a non-discretionary system that applies the contrarian investing approach using sentiment indicators. The algorithm systematically analyses market sentiment to recognize emotions associated with bubble formations and predicts subsequent movements.
We believe that sentiment indicators are the best metric to systematically and objectively analyse stock market behaviour and predict price movements in every phase of the market. This is based on years of proprietary research and successfully testing our findings in the markets.
Due to our unique approach, the system pinpoints sentiment trends and follows them until the exaggeration phase, to then change direction strategically. We are the only trading signal software provider to purely rely on sentiment indicators. As a result, we promote a smarter trading technique and a more efficient overall trading strategy. ONE-SIGNAL’s historical performance consistently demonstrates our system’s effectiveness, with impressive returns year over year. To maximise your trading strategy, explore our insights on profitable day trading strategies for the S&P 500. Stay informed about market dynamics with our 2024 Q2 analysis: Is the market set to crash. Additionally, deepen your understanding of generating alpha by reading our comprehensive article on what it means to generate alpha.
ONE-SIGNAL benefits from higher market volatility. The latter implies falling prices of securities, which our system anticipates and therefore delivers SHORT signals.
Long/short investors can choose to follow these, or if they prefer long-only positions, they hedge their portfolios. Additionally, profits are reinvested, creating a compound interest effect. Our secret lies in identifying and capitalising on different sentiment cycles.
ONE-SIGNAL‘s performance is presented in accumulation, i.e. profits are not withdrawn, but reinvested. Losses are not covered externally, like the S&P 500. The system’s performance arises without leverage and cost structures and taxes are not taken into account, as these vary from investor to investor.
RETURNS
 | S&P500 | |
| 1987 | 31.61% | -17.75% |
| 1988 | 16.21% | 8.51% |
| 1989 | 27.76% | 28.36% |
| 1990 | 21.64% | -8.19% |
| 1991 | 28.18% | 27.77% |
| 1992 | 4.30% | 4.42% |
| 1993 | 7.24% | 7.14% |
| 1994 | -1.71% | -1.33% |
| 1995 | 25.83% | 34.16% |
| 1996 | 23.17% | 19.33% |
| 1997 | 82.45% | 31.67% |
| 1998 | 189.24% | 26.07% |
| 1999 | 208.28% | 19.64% |
| 2000 | 246.40% | -10.14% |
| 2001 | 266.37% | -13.04% |
| 2002 | 302.27% | -23.37% |
| 2003 | 97.74% | 26.38% |
| 2004 | 48.06% | 8.99% |
| 2005 | 27.87% | 3.00% |
| 2006 | 20.26% | 13.62% |
| 2007 | 70.69% | 3.55% |
| 2008 | 61.45% | -38.47% |
| 2009 | 134.27% | 23.22% |
| 2010 | 52.98% | 12.64% |
| 2011 | 165.25% | 0.00% |
| 2012 | 81.34% | 13.29% |
| 2013 | -5.95% | 29.60% |
| 2014 | -1.55% | 11.54% |
| 2015 | 18.77% | -0.73% |
| 2016 | 34.64% | 9.84% |
| 2017 | -0.82% | 18.74% |
| 2018 | 44.97% | -6.59% |
| 2019 | 8.25% | 30.43% |
| 2020 | 36.20% | 15.76% |
| 2021 | 28.40% | 26.61% |
| 2022 | 72.21% | -19.64% |
| 2023 | 16.52% | 24.95% |
VOLATILITY
| S&P500 | |
| 1987 | 26.84% | 36.12% |
| 1988 | 8.44% | 17.09% |
| 1989 | 8.47% | 13.05% |
| 1990 | 16.94% | 15.95% |
| 1991 | 13.00% | 14.30% |
| 1992 | 6.33% | 9.70% |
| 1993 | 4.59% | 8.60% |
| 1994 | 6.62% | 9.84% |
| 1995 | 5.56% | 7.81% |
| 1996 | 8.97% | 11.78% |
| 1997 | 13.99% | 18.13% |
| 1998 | 22.00% | 20.25% |
| 1999 | 17.77% | 18.04% |
| 2000 | 18.39% | 22.18% |
| 2001 | 20.81% | 21.55% |
| 2002 | 12.65% | 26.00% |
| 2003 | 14.51% | 17.03% |
| 2004 | 6.29% | 11.07% |
| 2005 | 6.50% | 10.26% |
| 2006 | 4.30% | 10.01% |
| 2007 | 8.95% | 16.00% |
| 2008 | 24.18% | 41.00% |
| 2009 | 15.89% | 27.21% |
| 2010 | 12.17% | 18.04% |
| 2011 | 14.67% | 23.23% |
| 2012 | 10.49% | 12.82% |
| 2013 | 6.22% | 11.23% |
| 2014 | 12.38% | 14.40% |
| 2015 | 6.80% | 15.47% |
| 2016 | 9.21% | 13.09% |
| 2017 | 2.36% | 6.67% |
| 2018 | 11.78% | 16.98% |
| 2019 | 8.82% | 12.34% |
| 2020 | 13.50% | 33.84% |
| 2021 | 14.53% | 17.37% |
| 2022 | 19.76% | 24.35% |
| 2023 | 12.14% | 13.24% |
Disclaimer: Performance figures are based on backtests, cumulative and vary according to broker costs. All profits are reinvested. Past performance is not an indication of future results. The content shown here is only for information and to illustrate the feasibility of trading systems. The content presented on this website does not constitute an invitation to follow the generated signals, nor an offer to conclude a contract or other legal transaction. The content may not be interpreted as an invitation to invest in the capital or financial markets or to trade financial instruments.
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In the quest to get rich quickly, capital markets often become very attractive for many individuals. Many newcomers have a success story in mind, in which they have assigned the hero role to themselves. Unfortunately, the reality is different: many individuals leave the stock market with a lot of disappointment after realising big losses. Nevertheless, capital markets remain full of excitement and full of adventure, but above all, they are the best teacher one can find if one is persistent and adaptive enough.
Beginners enter the market greedy for money, success, and recognition. Most people leave the markets disillusioned and with the wrong conclusions, without getting anything in return for their apprenticeship money (losses). The range of the market psychology cycle between euphoria and the emotional apocalypse is the same for everyone. Those who work on themselves in the process can successfully pursue the profession of trader or full-time investor. The vast majority of market participants who are part-time will never be able to fully exploit the market and risk-reward opportunities in their favor. ONE-SIGNAL was designed for these people.
This can also be summed up correctly in the words of Warren Buffet: “Buy fear, sell greed.” The majority of value investors believe they are contrarian investors. They seek the intrinsic value in each stock. They buy when the market price is near the intrinsic value (best below it) and sell when the market price exceeds the intrinsic value. Some of them are looking for companies with favorable fundamental data, such as low P/E (price-to-earnings ratio), favorable P/B (price-to-book ratio), or companies with high dividend yields. The purpose is clear: to buy companies that have been neglected by the majority and wait until investors become aware of these stocks. Herd behavior arises when an increasing number of investors use this approach.
So what makes a real contrarian?
Being contrarian is more of a way of life than a strategy. It is more about independent thought than deviating from the majority. When herd behavior develops in the market, a contrarian would immediately ask the existential questions about the rationality of the trend. Contrarians are not necessarily outsiders, but they are brave enough to go it alone. However, they are also intelligent, attentive and flexible enough to know when the path taken is the wrong one. Sentiment indicators, unlike technical or fundamental indicators, reconcile the behavior of market participants (investors and speculators) with their actions in the market. Technical indicators only work once a balanced price prevails that considers demand and supply. They are inherently backward-looking and describe the behaviour of the masses in the past. The only meaningful use of technical indicators is the analysis and interpretation of past trends and using these indicators to project future ones. Fundamental analysis is a very different approach that analyzes companies using dozens of KPIs. Often the assumptions are not those prevailing in the market. Most notably, however, the share price of a given company can rise even if it is overvalued. Conversely, an undervalued stock may continue to fall if the market prefers a different industry or uses a divergent investment style. Fundament investors must be very patient, especially because the market tends to exaggerate and be irrational.
What are sentiment indicators?
Sentiment indicators quantify the future development of the market based on the behavior of market participants. In doing so, sentiment indicators provide a reliable picture of the psychology of the market.
What sentiment indicators are there?
There are a number of indicators that describe market psychology. Here are three: 1) Sentiment surveys (AAII/NAAIM) are usually held weekly, in which members of given organizations are asked about their current investments and expectations. 2) Volatility Index: This is a measure of fear and is usually calculated using the implicit volatility of the options on a respective index. Each major stock index has its own volatility index. The most famous of this family is the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). 3) Put/Call Ratio shows the relationship between purchased puts and purchased calls, giving insights into the optimism or pessimism in the market.
Everyone has an opinion on market developments, but not all opinions can be translated into action. Thus, such opinions are not interesting to us. We are only interested in opinions that can be used to position one’s own capital in the market and not just as a declaration of intent. Since sentiment indicators only incorporate opinions of active investors and speculators, we rely exclusively on these indicators.
This table represents the historical highs of various speculation instruments worldwide of a time period of 400 years. It demonstrates very clearly that bear markets always followed historical highs. These downward trends were caused by market participants’ fear of loss, which led them to sell their instruments and therefore cause the bear markets.
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